15 - 17 August 2025



Setia SPICE Convention Centre
Penang Malaysia

How will the global political and economic context affect gold?

For centuries, gold has been revered as a symbol of wealth and stability, playing a central role in global economies and financial markets.

By Xiao Qing, 8 January 2025

For centuries, gold has been revered as a symbol of wealth and stability, playing a central role in global economies and financial markets. Typically, when international tensions rise or conflicts occur between countries, gold prices tend to increase, following a general trend driven by market uncertainty. This trend has been observed during periods of global instability, such as the major financial crises, economic recessions, and the increase of geopolitical tensions. 

To invest in gold, investors must not only monitor current prices but also consider the global context, which significantly impacts gold prices. In recent years, the unstable international political and economic landscape has posed challenges to the global gold market. Events such as the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2011 European debt crisis caused significant fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions (Ding et al., 2022).

Moreover, disruptions in major gold-producing countries like China, Russia, and South Africa, driven by political conflicts and economic shifts, have further exacerbated price volatility. For instance, between 2006 and 2012, gold prices surged due to a combination of U.S. dollar depreciation, global inflation, geopolitical instability, and other financial challenges.

In addition to geopolitical factors, currency fluctuations play a crucial role in shaping gold prices. The strength of major currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar, heavily influences both gold supply and pricing. Economic policies, such as trade tariffs or export restrictions, further disrupt the gold supply chain. For example, during the U.S.-China trade war in 2018, ongoing tensions boosted the U.S. dollar, making gold less appealing to investors. These interconnected factors underscore the importance of understanding global dynamics when investing in gold, as they collectively shape the market’s behaviour and investor opportunities (Ding et al., 2022).

Furthermore, political instability and civil unrest in some gold-producing regions, such as South Africa, have contributed to disruptions in the gold supply. In countries with weak government structures and public security, gold mining operations are often targeted by armed groups, leading to a decline in production and an increase in illegal mining activities. South Africa, once one of the world’s largest gold producers, is a prominent example. Illegal mining has become a significant issue, contributing to a decrease in official gold production. As the country continues to grapple with the effects of civil unrest and illegal mining, it becomes clear that the economic and human costs of instability are deeply intertwined with the gold mining sector.

In conclusion, the unstable international political and economic environment in recent years has posed significant challenges to the global gold supply. As a result, understanding the current state of the worldwide gold supply is crucial for investors, manufacturers, and consumers alike, as it directly impacts the price of gold as a commodity. Staying informed about the global gold market is essential for navigating its complexities and capitalizing on opportunities in an ever-changing economic landscape.

Ready to know more? 

Visit us at the Penang Signature Gold, Gems & Jewellery Fair (PSG) on 15 – 17 August 2025! Explore this renowned gold and jewellery trade fair in the Southeast Asia region, featuring fabulous collections from shimmering diamonds to dreamy gemstones. Stay tuned for more updates!

References:

Ding, Q., Huang, J., Gao, W., & Zhang, H. (2022). Does political risk matter for gold market fluctuations? A structural VAR analysis. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries. Retrieved from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027553192200006X

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